The immediate consequence of the drubbing the Congress received in the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections, with Delhi hung and Mizoram a minor solace, is the rush to anoint Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi as the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate for the 2014 general election. At one level this is logical in view of Sheila Dikshit’s broad hints about non-cooperation from the Delhi unit and Sharad Pawar’s taunts about the non-performance of the UPA led by the Congress, coupled with the rebellion simmering in Andhra-Telangana.
Hence, before potential regional satraps raise the banner of revolt against the Gandhi family and demand greater say in the functioning of the party and selection of candidates in future elections, it is imperative to settle the issue of Prime Ministerial candidate. A party that could not handle the dynastic claims of YSR Reddy’s son Jaganmohan Reddy will not like questions raised about the credentials and credibility of its heir apparent. After all, Rahul Gandhi has already lost Bihar, UP, Gujarat, and now MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi.
The loyalists would like this to be done before beginning formal introspection for the virtual rout of the Congress in a huge swathe of northern and middle India; present indications suggest that the regime led by Dr Manmohan Singh will be blamed for the price rise and corruption that made the party unpopular. The Assembly elections have thus crystallized matters for both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who remains the de facto power behind the UPA, was savvy enough to realise that the era of appointing surrogates to the office of Prime Minister is over, and that Rahul Gandhi will have to be put in the driver’s seat quickly or else any State leader with a large chunk of parliamentary seats can stake claim to the Prime Minister’s post. Alternately, a surrogate selected by Rahul Gandhi may not be as accommodating as Dr Manmohan Singh and may give the dynasty the boot at some stage. This is, of course, assuming that the Congress will be in a position to lead Government formation in 2014, which is why there is talk of forcing or persuading Dr Singh to step down and allow Rahul Gandhi to be sworn-in. however, there is little chance that allies like Sharad Pawar will now oblige the Congress in this respect.
For the Gujarat Chief Minister, the big lesson from the elections is that he is in for a long haul and will have to handle complex challenges within and outside the BJP, simultaneously. His letter to the Prime Minister, pointing out serious lacunas in the Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence (Access to Justice and Reparations) Bill, which has received support from Chief Ministers across the spectrum, is an impressive intervention in the national arena.
It has also curbed the tendency of BJP parliamentary leaders to strike deals with the ruling Congress without reference to the electoral leadership. Given Sonia Gandhi’s desperation to pass certain legislations in the winter session of Parliament to enhance Congress prospects in 2014, Narendra Modi will have to keep a beady eye on all BJP-Congress activities in Parliament, besides being alert to signs of an early election. For starters, he should put in abeyance all contentious legislations, such as the unnecessary Lokpal Bill, the Women’s Reservation Bill, and so on, until wider national consensus evolves on these issues.
The most immediate challenge is to restrain the Delhi BJP leadership which is itching to form the Government, even though there is no mandate to do so. A cursory look at the election results shows that the BJP gained an additional 12 per cent of the popular vote in Rajasthan, 8 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, and 2 per cent in the closely contested Chhattisgarh. But in Delhi, even though the lusterless party unit was galvanized by Narendra Modi and taken close to the finishing line, the BJP actually lost 2 per cent of the popular vote.
Congress lost 15 per cent vote share and the Aam Admi Party raked in 30 per cent of the vote. Indeed, the AAP might have won a clear majority had it not been derailed by a sting operation and other allegations that paralyzed it for a few days. In fairness, AAP should be encouraged to form a government with support from the Congress, while the Delhi BJP should foster a new generation of leaders with grassroots credibility.
A major challenge is whether or not to split the linguistic State of Andhra Pradesh, given that the Justice Srikrishna Committee Report has debunked claims of the backwardness of Telangana. Present indications suggest that President Pranab Mukherjee also favours a serious rethink on the issue, which should not be subjected to electoral expediency.
It is undeniable that the Congress vice president cannot match the oratory and grasp over facts and issues demonstrated by the Gujarat veteran, but it would be unwise to underestimate Sonia Gandhi and her band of retainers for whom 2014 will be a last ditch battle. If the sting operation against the AAP (with whom Congress has natural affinity) in the last phase of the Delhi election when the Congress felt it was losing is any indication, no dirty trick will be spared. And if there is one lesson from the stalk-gate story, it is that the BJP more often than not fumbles and crumbles.
So while it is safe to assume that Congress is on the decline, the challenge is to ensure that the commensurate gains from its fall are made by the BJP and its allies, rather than a motley collection of regional parties feeding the Left dream of a Third Front. In fact, it is too early for the Left parties to revive in West Bengal and Kerala, and BJP would do well to take risks and extend itself in specific constituencies where individual leaders enjoy public esteem. This pattern could be followed in all States where the party currently has a marginal presence.
Narendra Modi has done well to shun the rhetoric that he is a polarising and divisive figure; he is far less guilty for 2002 than Congress is for 1984 and other riots. He would profit from taking advantage of the lull in the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party camps and concentrate on triumphing in Uttar Pradesh. Other high priority States are Bihar and Karnataka.
An important intervention Narendra Modi initiated during these elections, robustly seconded by Vasundhara Raje, was to challenge the Gandhi family propensity to treat State share of national revenue as a gift from the family treasury, and to foster dependence on doles rather than self-empowerment through development. Thus, though States like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have extensive welfare measures in place, these are implemented in a spirit of sharing prosperity rather than dishing out charity to the poor. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi’s inability to nuance the UPA’s populist measures recoiled on the party.
It is interesting to note that in the early phase of her campaign, Raje lambasted the Central directive to promote children without examinations up to class VIII, which, she pointed out, had resulted in a steep decline in educational standards, with teachers not bothering to teach and students not caring to study. Shivraj Singh Chouhan also mentioned the destruction of the State’s education system by the previous Congress regime, and said restoration would be the top priority of his next tenure. An in-depth analysis of such crucial issues that go to make up the quality of life for ordinary families would be a welcome development.
Niticentral.com, 11 December 2013
http://www.niticentral.com/2013/12/11/modi-effect-rahul-for-pm-167406.html