Concerted and continuing changes in the demography of the north-eastern states, which have already overwhelmed the indigenous population in several districts, are causing dismay and alarm among dispassionate intellectuals, ordinary citizens, and even concerned administrators. Political parties, however, have mostly turned the Nelson’s eye to the crisis brewing in several border regions. The India First Foundation, R&D Foundation for Integral Humanism and Astha Bharati have attempted to draw attention to the seriousness of the situation on India’s vast border through a seminar on Religious Demography: Ramifications and Remedies (12 October 2003). This article shall focus mainly upon the explosive situation in Assam.
The calculated enhancement of the Assamese population with an imported religious community first came to national attention over two decades ago, when the communal faultlines erupted in an unprecedented wave of violence against migrants from Bangladesh (erstwhile East Pakistan). Mr. D.N. Bezboruah, editor, The Sentinel, said that plans to alter Assam’s demography were launched much before the Partition. Amalendu Guha in Planter Raj to Swaraj: Freedom Struggle and Electoral Politics in Assam 1826-1947, pointed out that Muslim presence in the Brahmaputra Valley rose from nine per cent in 1881 to 19 per cent in 1931 and 23 per cent in 1941. In Barpeta sub-division alone, Muslims comprised merely 0.1 percent of the population in 1911, but were almost 49 per cent in 1941.
Bezboruah fears that given the pace of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, the indigenous Assamese may soon be found in district Sibsagar alone. By 1991, Muslims had become the majority in Dhubri (70.46%), Goalpara (50.42%), Barpeta (56.07%) and Hailakandi (55.42%) districts, and by 2001 they became the majority in Marigaon, Nagaon and Karimganj districts as well. Bezboruah traces the present crisis to the premeditated actions of Mr. Syed Mohammad Sadullah, who led five ministries in the State between April 1937 and February 1946.
Lord Wavell commented in his Memories that Sadullah’s policy of importing East Bengal Muslims in pursuit of his “Grow More Food” policy during World War II was actually a strategy to “Grow More Muslims.” Immigrants were settled on one lakh bighas in the Brahmaputra Valley in 1939-40 alone. In 1937, Sadullah joined the Muslim League and supported the proposed Grouping under the Cabinet Mission Plan that nearly made Assam a part of Pakistan, but for the efforts of Mahatma Gandhi, Gopinath Bordoloi, and Sarat Chandra Bose. Yet today, Assam’s abnormal demographic changes could well make it a part of Bangladesh!
This is amply reflected in the decadal growth of Assam’s population between 1951 and 1971. From 1951 to 1961, the population rose by 34.98 percent, and from 1961 to 1971, the growth rate was 34.95 percent. Thus, for two decades the population grew at almost 3.5 percent annually, which is unparalleled elsewhere in the country. Clearly, the main causative factor was the large-scale illegal migration from East Pakistan. Indeed, a study by Ashok Swain (Report No. 41, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University: “The Environmental Trap: The Ganges River Diversion, Bangladeshi Migration and Conflicts in India”) traces how the annual population increase in each division of Bangladesh declined correspondingly between 1961 and 1991.
A look at just three divisions in Bangladesh should suffice. In Dhaka division, the annual population increase during 1961-1974 was 3.11 percent, but fell to 2.75 percent during 1974-1981 and 2.22 percent during 1981-1991. In Khulna division, the figures were 3.31 percent (1961-1974), 2.41 percent (1974-1981) and 1.62 percent (1981-1991). In Rajshahi division, the figures were 3.56 percent (1961-1974), 2.64 percent (1974-1981) and 2.09 percent. In Bangladesh as a whole, the figures for these years were 3.21 percent (1961-1974), 2.57 percent (1974-1981) and 2.03 percent (1981-1991). Bezboruah rightly suggests that these are very drastic reductions for a country that has otherwise had an annual population growth rate of over 3.5 percent. The only credible explanation is that people migrated to India en masse. In fact, Bangladesh’s 1991 census speaks of a “missing population” of six million!
The situation has been aggravated by the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983, which was the handiwork of the pro-Bangladeshi lobby. This special immigration law deprived the district administration of the power to detect and deport illegal foreigners, and created tribunals to which citizens had to complain about foreigners within the jurisdiction of the same police station, after paying a fee. In practice, the Act makes it virtually impossible to deport a foreigner. The IMDT Act is the only immigration law in the world where the enforcing authority is not the Executive but retired members of the Judiciary serving as judges of the tribunals!
This has encouraged illegal Bangladeshi migrants to venture into other north-eastern States as well. If troubled by possible detection and deportation in those States, they can simply catch a bus to Assam, stay with friends for a while, and then return. Bezboruah believes that this partially explains Nagaland’s explosive population growth of over 65 per cent between 1991 and 2001 (though part was due to the fact that some areas had not been enumerated for census earlier).
The most frightening consequence of this stupendous illegal influx is that it has made life easy for organizations like Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has moved in and begun arming and training militant Muslim groups in Assam. ISI has even made inroads into militant groups like the ULFA, some of whose cadres it had earlier trained in Pakistan. Thus, the criminal negligence and cupidity of political parties that view everything from the prism of votebanks may one day make Assam a Muslim-majority State. Indeed, Assam’s indigenous population already faces the grim future experienced by minorities in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Dr. Sardindu Mukherjee of Delhi University presented a paper on the tragedy of the Chakmas of the Chittagong Hill Tracts, a part of undivided Bengal that was ceded to East Pakistan at Partition. Even in 1947, Buddhists comprised nearly 97% of the population. But after Partition, the Pakistani authorities began settling Bengali-speaking Muslims there and harassing the local people. About ten thousand Chakmas migrated to India within a decade, after being deprived on account of the Kaptai Dam project, and tried to settle in Arunachal Pradesh. Pakistan thereafter intensified the policy of settling Muslims from Chittagong, Noakhali, Sylhet and Comilla, and further uprooting the Chakmas (or Jumma people).
The policy of minority persecution in East Pakistan-Bangladesh has been so successful that minorities have been reduced from 29 percent in 1947 to a mere eight or ten percent today. Mukherjee states that there were major pogroms (not riots) from time to time; a major holocaust led to the flight of Hindus in 1950. Several incidents followed over the next half-century, the most major ones being the elections of 1971 (which elected Mujibur Rehman as Prime Minister) and 2001 (after Khaleda Zia’s victory). These naturally caused Chakmas and Hindus to cross over into India.
In Tripura, large-scale Bangladeshi immigration is threatening to deluge the indigenous population. These developments have a major bearing on national security and can be ignored only at our own peril. It is high time political parties set aside short-term considerations and addressed themselves to the gravity of the situation. The Prime Minister would do well to call an all-party meeting to discuss the issue threadbare.
The Pioneer, 21 October 2003