Some interesting takeaways from the mini-general election for which counting is now almost over are, first and most surprising, that Doordarshan News has been fastest and most unbiased in giving the state-wise updates of the election results, even as news channels generally considered more popular have dragged their feet over closely contested States, most notably Chhattisgarh. This came to public notice thanks to the habit of channel surfing during advertisement breaks, and soon became viral via the social media.
The second factor, denied or downplayed by the “Lutyens Brigade”, is the unmistakable impact of the “Modi factor” in giving an edge to the BJP campaign in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and even Delhi, though the party seems unable to form the Government. Indeed, in the absence of a clear majority, it would be a mistake to try doing so.
The third is the breathtaking performance of the fledgling Aam Admi Party and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, who has defeated Delhi’s three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by a record margin of around 22,000 votes, forcing her to send her resignation to Lt Governor Najib Jung even before the counting is officially over. With this, mainstream media projections of Dikshit as the likely Prime Ministerial choice of the Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi after an anticipated victory in the 2014 elections have bitten the dust.
The immediate fallout for the United Progressive Alliance is an immediate question mark over financial reforms like FDI which the AAP opposes, and statehood for Telangana at the instance of a lame duck Government at the Centre. Over the next few months, it is likely that this near eclipse of the Congress in Delhi and Rajasthan, coupled with an inability to return to power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, could compel the UPA to call for early national elections in 2014.
But by far the most important consequence of the results is that the Congress is wounded, a fact which will make Sonia Gandhi push Amethi MP Rahul Gandhi aside and directly confront BJP Prime Ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi with all guns blazing in the 2014 general election. As a direct consequence, the media and particularly the electronic media will continue a policy of overt hostility to the BJP and particularly towards the Gujarat Chief Minister. Indeed, this is already visible.
State-wise, the most important result is that of Chhattisgarh, where Dr Raman Singh has managed to defend his turf and win a third term, despite the formidable challenge posed by the Maoist-missionary combine, not to mention the mining mafia. Despite good work at grassroots level to provide the daily needs of the people through a formidable public distribution system, to boost agricultural self-sufficiency and industrial development, Singh faced the most serious challenge of his political career. The near complete eradication of the Congress State leadership in the Durbha Ghati massacre by Maoists earlier in the month of May 2013 put him on the defensive and highlighted the failure to overcome the Maoist menace.
Realising the nature of Raman Singh’s difficulty – the Supreme Court nixed the Salwa Judum tribal resistance to the Maoists, and the Centre has not extended the kind of support needed to overcome this menace which is spreading across the country – Narendra Modi spared no efforts to assist his colleague. Despite threats to his life in Patna and later in Chhattisgarh were over 400 landmine bombs were found and defused and over 500 kgs of IEDs recovered around the time of his rallies, and several SIMI activists arrested during his visits, Narendra Modi campaigned extensively for Raman Singh. After the campaigning in Chhattisgarh officially ended, he scheduled rallies in neighbouring States and addressed Chhattisgarh voters from there. Throughout the day, the close contest kept the nation on tenterhooks, till the BJP finally sealed its victory with 49 seats.
In Delhi, given the BJP’s tantalizing inability to reach the winning figure (32 seats including 1 Akali against 28 of AAP, 8 Congress and 2 others), questions are being raised about the efficacy of the Narendra Modi factor. This is incorrect as the Gujarat Chief Minister cannot be blamed for the state unit’s failure to effectively challenge Sheila Dixit through 15 years of misgovernance, price rise, crime, and massive corruption, particularly in the Commonwealth Games, Delhi Transport Corporation, electricity bills, water crisis, and so on.
It is pertinent that when the new State unit chief, Vijay Goel, began to sideline leaders who had lost public confidence and to target the Congress more pointedly, a revolt backed by top leaders scuttled his plans completely. Thereafter, a flawed ticket distribution gave weightage to the leaders who have lost their own seats, or whose protégés lost. Ironically, the only political legacy to survive the people’s verdict is that of late Sahib Singh Verma, whose son managed to win from Mehrauli, far from the former Chief Minister’s bastion in Outer Delhi.
The lesson to the BJP high command is that those who imagine they can dictate to the people by controlling the levers of power in the party will get their reality bites. That BJP still managed to pose a credible challenge to Congress and emerge as the single largest party is entirely because of Narendra Modi’s charisma; he galvanized the youth and disillusioned middle class voters who were drifting towards the AAP. The BJP needs to revisit the tendency to distribute tickets on the basis of cronyism rather than winnability and performance at the grassroots. Expecting a ‘wave’ to carry undeserving candidates to victory is willful hallucination.
In Madhya Pradesh, thanks to hard work and high personal popularity, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan led the party to a handsome third innings with 165 seats at the time of writing, well above the half-way mark. Similarly, Vasundhara Raje stormed back to power with 162 seats against a meagre 21 by Congress (at the time of writing).
One message from the election is to the Supreme Court – the ‘None of the Above’ innovation was largely irrelevant and entirely forgettable. A country the size of India cannot afford the luxury of spin-off elections. While the established political parties might be able to afford some re-election campaigns, these tilt the playing field against new entrants like the AAP which lack resources. Indeed, if Delhi needs a fresh election in the next six months, the decline in the AAP’s fortunes could establish this fact. It would be best to leave the conduct of elections to the Election Commission.
Finally, Narendra Modi addressed 170-odd rallies in the four States and definitely made a mark upon the results, as Rajasthan leader Vasundhara Raje has generously acknowledged. But as the results in Delhi and Chhattisgarh show, complacency would be ill-advised. BJP president Rajnath Singh must now speed up the process of bringing back Karnataka estranged leader BS Yeddyurappa back into the fold. In the States where BJP does not have a meaningful presence, it would be wise to look at credible local candidates or parties that can boost its overall tally in 2014. Above all, it would be wise to politely disregard the guidance or interference of leaders whose electoral appeal is a thing of the past. This has already cost the party a possible victory in the Capital.
Niticentral.com, 8 December 2013
http://www.niticentral.com/2013/12/08/congress-fall-begins-challenges-ahead-for-bjp-166558.html